So here we are again. How did the Phillies find themselves with such an overabundance of pitching and still remain so far from a solution to their troubles?
On August 9th the Phillies & Jamie Moyer suffered a 12-3 loss to the Florida Marlins. In five innings Moyer allowed 11 hits, 3 runs (2 earned), hit one batter, walked one and recorded one strikeout. Rodrigo Lopez and Brad Lidge combined to do the rest of the damage by allowing 6 and 3 runs, respectively. It may not have been so bad if those three runs scored on fewer hits or if Moyer hadn’t thrown 97 pitches in those five innings. After all, Cole Hamels had a 97-pitch complete game on June 4th and J.A. Happ threw a 100-pitch complete game on June 27th. Cliff Lee has thrown two complete games since joining the defending world champions with 106 pitches in each start. It might not have been the straw that broke the camel’s back had it not been the Phillies’ third loss in 4 games with Moyer on the mound. If Moyer had not already had the third highest ERA in all of baseball going into the game the club may not have moved him to the bullpen the day following the loss.
How did Moyer respond to the move? It was reported that he felt “disheartened” and “misled” and had been assured that he would not be bumped from the starting rotation when he was negotiating his 2-year $13 million contract in December. Jamie had said “I feel like I’ve played this game long enough that the respect factor should be there;” but the Philadelphia Phillies organization is about winning ballgames, not sparing feelings. “Right now circumstances have changed and that’s why we’re moving him to the bullpen,” responded Amaro just days after he made public that J.A. Happ’s starting role was secure.
So Moyer took to the pen. Moyer took the pen in grand fashion, even. On August 18th Pedro Martinez was on his way to a start the Phillies knew he was capable of when they added him to the roster. However, the skies opened upon Citizens Bank Park and after a 66-minute rain delay forcing Pedro to sit the rest of the game allowing Moyer to show Philadelphia what kind of stuff he can bring to the table in long relief.
And boy did he show off. Moyer pitched six innings, allowed just two hits, struck out five, and did not allow a single run as he took over the game with confidence and finesse. This is the Moyer the Phillies had in mind when they signed him to that two-year contract. This is the Moyer that used to be part of a five-man rotation that was also home to the 2008 NLCS & World Series MVP award winner Cole Hamels.
Wait a second… What about Cole Hamels?
Cole Hamels has struggled to remain consistent in 2009. You can see it in his win-loss record. In 2008 Cole went 14-10 with a major league career low 3.09 ERA. He went 4-0 in the post season and was the obvious nominee for MVP. Cole was the Phillies’ ace and no one expected anything less of him in 2009. So far this season Hamels has proven to be very hot and cold - there has been no luke warm.
Let’s look at the numbers:
Cole Hamels’ record is 7-8 with a major league career high 4.78 ERA which is also fifth worst in the National League. The Phillies are 12-12 in games that he has started - they literally have a 50/50 chance of winning a game with their so-called ace on the mound. When you break it down even further you can really see his inconsistency come to light.
In April Hamels went 0-2 but immediately turned it around and won all three of his decisions in May. Things dipped south again in June when he went 1-2 but flip flopped in July going 3-1. To round things out Cole is 0-3 in August. Baseball is a streaky game, and the Phillies have historically been a streaky team, but the way the math works out ends in Cole having a brilliant September and a rocky October which is something I like to imagine would essentially bench even an MVP when the team may have another World Series title on the line.
Let’s discuss October for a bit, shall we? Cliff Lee will undoubtedly be the number one starter in the playoffs. So far with the Phillies he is 4-0 with an astonishing 0.82 ERA (and a team-leading .385 batting average - who knew?!). Behind him we can assume Blanton will make an appearance as he has been just as effective for the Phillies, only he is not usually backed up by enough offense to secure him the W. Regardless he is the reigning AL Cy Young award winner and a seasoned veteran and will surely continue to prove himself to be an asset to the team as they look to defend their title.
After Blanton, however, the future becomes a little blurry. Pedro Martinez has said himself that he expects to be picking up the pace when the rest of the rotation starts to get tired towards the end of the year. With only eight innings under his belt so far he has shown everyone he still has the stuff that made him a great pitcher in the past but it will be up to him to make sure he continues to build his resume so that he can dominate in the fall. J.A. Happ has been remarkable as a starter and is a favorite for the well deserved NL Rookie of the Year award. But does he have what it takes to be just as stellar in a post-season game? More importantly do the Phillies feel comfortable taking a risk in finding out?
But where do Hamels & Moyer fit in? The Phillies have been 13-10 when Moyer has started but those wins have not come easy. As we’ve already seen the Phightin’s have a 50% chance of winning with Hamels on the mound. Is it too far of a stretch to think that maybe, just maybe, we will see Moyer & Hamels switch roles in the not so distant future? Is it fair to even consider such things? We saw the Phillies organization put feelings aside when they issued Moyer his billet. Should a team as powerful & dominant as Philadelphia even be expected to have to decide between starting a Rookie of the Year candidate & and World Series MVP candidate? Shouldn’t they reasonably be able to use both of them with the utmost confidence? Only time will tell.
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Saturday, August 22, 2009
Thursday, August 6, 2009
The Rotation Conundrum
The trade deadline has come and gone. On July 31st at 4:01 p.m. there was no work order put in to start printing Roy Halladay t-shirts with a Phillies logo on the front. J.A. Happ took a step down off the chopping block and breathed a sigh of relief. Cliff Lee was mentally preparing for four at bats against Giants pitching. Rodrigo Lopez was lamenting a tough loss from the night before. Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer & Cole Hamels were all coming off of wins in their last starts anxious to see the reigning AL Cy Young award winner pitch for the reigning World Series champions. Brett Myers was throwing long-toss and gearing up for a weekend bullpen session. Pedro Martinez was gearing up for a rehab start with Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
Wait… Is Philadelphia about to have seven starting pitchers at their disposal? When was the last time anyone was able to say the Phillies had too much pitching? And how are they going to narrow it down to five?
Lopez has already made the move to the bullpen and will most likely stay there. Myers is scheduled to throw a simulated game in Clearwater on Thursday and although he may be back in Citizens Bank Park sooner than originally anticipated he will most likely pitch relief initially. Martinez gave up five hits leading to four runs (three earned) in six innings pitched on Wednesday versus the Trenton Thunder but more notably recorded eleven strike outs. Every day he inches closer to being major league ready and when he is he brings with him the question everyone has started to ask lately - will he be a starter and if so who is he replacing?
Cliff Lee was a force to be reckoned with on Friday at AT&T Park and proved quickly that the Phillies made the right move by investing in him. In his national league debut Lee pitched a complete game four-hitter in a 5-1 win over the Giants striking out six and walking two. Not only did he pitch brilliantly, he also went 2-3 at the plate hitting a long double in the eighth that would have easily been a homerun in Philadelphia. I’m fairly confident in saying Cliff Lee will not be sitting in the outfield any time soon.
Cole Hamels is battling to prove he can pitch like the Cole Hamels we saw in the 2008 post-season where he earned both NLCS & World Series MVP titles. Despite being statistically the second worst pitcher in the Phillies rotation his spot is secure.
Blanton is skating along proving to be one of the more consistent pitchers on the mound for Philly this season. So far he is 7-5 with a 4.02 ERA and 107 strike outs. Almost every one of his stats rank third of all of the Phillies current starting pitchers and the city knows they can generally expect a good solid outing from him even if his efforts sometimes go unanswered by the team’s offense.
So that leaves Moyer, the 46 year old that has had a rollercoaster of a season, and Happ who has been auditioning for his job since spring training. Happ has bullpen experience having started out there in the beginning of the season after losing the spring training pitching duel to Chan Ho Park (who has proved to be phenomenal in relief as of late). It’s almost natural for him to go back to the pen now that the Phillies have created a stock pile of starting pitchers to fill the voids left by Park and Myers earlier in the season.
It’s not exactly as though Happ has been throwing like a substitute, though. In fourteen starts, Happ is 8-2 which is the best win/start ratio on the team. He boasts a team low 2.74 ERA and on Wednesday he threw his second complete game shutout of the season and his career. He only has 86 strike outs so far but has also pitched the least amount of innings of the rotation - even so he is averaging about 6.5 strikeouts per game ranking him ahead of Lee & Moyer. Happ is turning out to be the Phillies ace and he didn’t even start the season in the rotation. He is arguably the best transaction the Phillies did not make.
Moyer is the only Phillies pitcher to have secured 10 wins so far in 2009. Of the 21 starts he has made this season he is averaging about five and two thirds innings pitched per game. In those five and two thirds innings pitched per game he has given up 22 home runs. That works out to be roughly one trip around the bases per game. When you add that he has also given up a team high 74 earned runs (13th highest of all MLB pitchers) it isn’t hard to see why his ERA is third lowest in all of baseball at 5.55 trailing only Francisco Liriano (MIN, 5.63) and Todd Wellemeyer (STL, 5.67).
The numbers don’t lie. Anyone could look at a page of statistics and deduce that of the Phillies current starting pitchers Moyer should be the one to have to give up his seat to make room for Pedro but the organization says he isn’t made for the bullpen. Although he has pitched relief before it hasn’t been for quite some time with his last bullpen appearance coming in 1996 with the Rex Sox. Clearly he has done well with age, though. It took him twelve years to notch his 100th win and just eleven to scoop up 150 more to hit the 250 milestone in the 2009 season with the Phillies. He had remarkably impressive numbers with the Mariners and ranked among one of the best American league pitchers at the time. But does an impressive run in the late ’90s earn Moyer a spot in the World Series champions’ rotation?
Lee will pitch Thursday to try and recreate Friday’s game in his Citizens Bank Park debut. Joe Blanton will pitch Friday and Hamels will pitch Saturday. Moyer is scheduled to start against the Marlins on Sunday afternoon, but will that be his last start? It’s time to Jamie to step up to the plate and show Philly what he’s got and that he’s still got IT. If he can’t the Phillies may end the season with a rotation that has been almost completely replaced, but the ultimate goal is clear: Repeating. And back to back World Series wins may be worth a little more to the front office than sparing feelings. Pin It Now!
Wait… Is Philadelphia about to have seven starting pitchers at their disposal? When was the last time anyone was able to say the Phillies had too much pitching? And how are they going to narrow it down to five?
Lopez has already made the move to the bullpen and will most likely stay there. Myers is scheduled to throw a simulated game in Clearwater on Thursday and although he may be back in Citizens Bank Park sooner than originally anticipated he will most likely pitch relief initially. Martinez gave up five hits leading to four runs (three earned) in six innings pitched on Wednesday versus the Trenton Thunder but more notably recorded eleven strike outs. Every day he inches closer to being major league ready and when he is he brings with him the question everyone has started to ask lately - will he be a starter and if so who is he replacing?
Cliff Lee was a force to be reckoned with on Friday at AT&T Park and proved quickly that the Phillies made the right move by investing in him. In his national league debut Lee pitched a complete game four-hitter in a 5-1 win over the Giants striking out six and walking two. Not only did he pitch brilliantly, he also went 2-3 at the plate hitting a long double in the eighth that would have easily been a homerun in Philadelphia. I’m fairly confident in saying Cliff Lee will not be sitting in the outfield any time soon.
Cole Hamels is battling to prove he can pitch like the Cole Hamels we saw in the 2008 post-season where he earned both NLCS & World Series MVP titles. Despite being statistically the second worst pitcher in the Phillies rotation his spot is secure.
Blanton is skating along proving to be one of the more consistent pitchers on the mound for Philly this season. So far he is 7-5 with a 4.02 ERA and 107 strike outs. Almost every one of his stats rank third of all of the Phillies current starting pitchers and the city knows they can generally expect a good solid outing from him even if his efforts sometimes go unanswered by the team’s offense.
So that leaves Moyer, the 46 year old that has had a rollercoaster of a season, and Happ who has been auditioning for his job since spring training. Happ has bullpen experience having started out there in the beginning of the season after losing the spring training pitching duel to Chan Ho Park (who has proved to be phenomenal in relief as of late). It’s almost natural for him to go back to the pen now that the Phillies have created a stock pile of starting pitchers to fill the voids left by Park and Myers earlier in the season.
It’s not exactly as though Happ has been throwing like a substitute, though. In fourteen starts, Happ is 8-2 which is the best win/start ratio on the team. He boasts a team low 2.74 ERA and on Wednesday he threw his second complete game shutout of the season and his career. He only has 86 strike outs so far but has also pitched the least amount of innings of the rotation - even so he is averaging about 6.5 strikeouts per game ranking him ahead of Lee & Moyer. Happ is turning out to be the Phillies ace and he didn’t even start the season in the rotation. He is arguably the best transaction the Phillies did not make.
Moyer is the only Phillies pitcher to have secured 10 wins so far in 2009. Of the 21 starts he has made this season he is averaging about five and two thirds innings pitched per game. In those five and two thirds innings pitched per game he has given up 22 home runs. That works out to be roughly one trip around the bases per game. When you add that he has also given up a team high 74 earned runs (13th highest of all MLB pitchers) it isn’t hard to see why his ERA is third lowest in all of baseball at 5.55 trailing only Francisco Liriano (MIN, 5.63) and Todd Wellemeyer (STL, 5.67).
The numbers don’t lie. Anyone could look at a page of statistics and deduce that of the Phillies current starting pitchers Moyer should be the one to have to give up his seat to make room for Pedro but the organization says he isn’t made for the bullpen. Although he has pitched relief before it hasn’t been for quite some time with his last bullpen appearance coming in 1996 with the Rex Sox. Clearly he has done well with age, though. It took him twelve years to notch his 100th win and just eleven to scoop up 150 more to hit the 250 milestone in the 2009 season with the Phillies. He had remarkably impressive numbers with the Mariners and ranked among one of the best American league pitchers at the time. But does an impressive run in the late ’90s earn Moyer a spot in the World Series champions’ rotation?
Lee will pitch Thursday to try and recreate Friday’s game in his Citizens Bank Park debut. Joe Blanton will pitch Friday and Hamels will pitch Saturday. Moyer is scheduled to start against the Marlins on Sunday afternoon, but will that be his last start? It’s time to Jamie to step up to the plate and show Philly what he’s got and that he’s still got IT. If he can’t the Phillies may end the season with a rotation that has been almost completely replaced, but the ultimate goal is clear: Repeating. And back to back World Series wins may be worth a little more to the front office than sparing feelings. Pin It Now!
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